by Markus Giebel
Innovative Statistical Real Estate Cycle Tracking Tool Based On A Computer Model
HIGH LIGHTS
- Development of software and computer based statistical model is completed
- Model was successfully tested globally in 18 international markets with the help of CBRE
- Historical success rate approaches 90%
- Model gives ample time to prepare for a market change.
PRODUCT OFFERING
- Quarterly outlook with buy / sell recommendations
- Correlation between micro and macro factors
- Bespoke portfolio specific analysis. Rebalancing strategy based on market specific data
- Investment specific - alpha level advisory for Board and/or IC approvals and/or placement memorandums
PRODUCT
An innovative analytical computer program based on statistical tools to track real estate trends and reversals. It anticipates changes in trends and generates alert signals giving ample time to real estate owners to adjust/prepare a portfolio for a downturn or upswing. The model distinguishes between markets and various asset classes ie office, industrial, retail, etc.
The product development is completed. Tests in various markets have been successfully conducted. Applying the model based on historical real estate data, a real estate asset manager/owner would have captured 87 – 96% of the rallies and would have avoided 69 – 95% of the downtime. Data provided by one of the world’s leading real estate advisory firms – CBRE.
WHAT DOES IT DO FOR MONEY / RISK MANAGERS / PROPERTY OWNERS
Assuming a passive trading style for the London market shown below, a Pound Sterling invested in each of the cycles would generate between 1.6x to 2.0x of capital value gain during the holding period.
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Figures exclude
rental income.
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Note:
Chart above is 1 out of the 9 variables that complete the framework. 4 Micro
variables act as decision signals while 5 Macro variables provide guidance
pointers.
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TEAM
Shreyas Phadnis
10 years industry experience in
private equity real estate including Big Four consulting.
Markus Giebel
Over 20 years experience in Real
Estate and PE. Former CEO of a public listed real estate company.
Juergen E. Herre
30 years experience in investment
banking/ real estate. Former MD of Hines, one of the leading real estate
companies in the world.
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